Famous 1.5°C Climate Cap Set to Collapse in 5 Years, Says WMO

• Global climate predictions: more extreme calamities, including torrential rainfall and rising sea levels, await the world.
• There is an 86% chance that in at least one of the years between 2025 and 2029, the world will see temperatures exceed 1.5°C.
• World leaders should unite immediately, as there is not much time left.

A new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) notes that global temperatures will become profoundly high in the next five years between 2025 and 2029, putting global climate efforts on the back foot if not acted upon urgently.

According to the report, there is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will be much hotter than 2024, the warmest year on record. There is also an 86% chance that one of those five years will be more than 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial average (1850–1900).

Factoring in longer-term trends, the WMO forecast a 70% chance that the average temperature in the next five years will transcend 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The report notices that this probability is showing an upward trend when analysing data from previous years, up from 47% predicted last year for 2024–2028 and 32% the year before for 2023–2027. But what is not worrying, or at least a temporary respite, is that the long-term global temperature averaged over 20 years, according to the Paris Agreement 2015, is below 1.5°C, which means we have not breached yet.

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However, a small increase in the temperature has larger repercussions. This means that the world will witness more catastrophes in the form of extreme heatwaves, torrential rainfalls, worse droughts, faster melting of ice sheets and glaciers, warmer oceans, and rising sea levels.

In addition to those, the Arctic is likely to warm more than three times the global average during winters in the next five years, and sea ice will melt at a faster rate, especially in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk, the report highlights.

There will be differences in the onset of rainfall. It is forecast that from May to September between 2025 and 2029, regions such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia will receive more rain than usual.

On the other hand, Amazon is expected to become drier, and South Asia, which has been wetter than usual, is predicted to continue this trend in the coming years, though not every season.

Now, as a last resort, countries and policymakers should keep aside their differences and work together as soon as possible, as there is not much time left. Experts say the last ten years have already been the warmest on record, and there is no sign of this trend reversing.

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WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said: "We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet."

The world leaders, who will shake hands at COP30 in Brazil later this year, should resolve their existing disagreements, set aside their rhetoric, and allow room for meaningful conversations that kick off actions and lead to immediate solutions—unlike what happened at previous futile climate conferences.

To read the full report, visit the WMO's website or click here.

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Source: WMO